As we move into late September, the hunt for the playoffs begins. This graphic shows the probability of the Mets and the Nationals winning the NL East as of September 7, 2015. It is based on a statistical simulation method called monte carlo. Baseball Prospectus runs 1000s of simulations based on statistics and the remaining schedule and play out the season. Mets are still in the drivers seat, though will try to update after the big series this week with Nats.